Created
November 27, 2021 06:18
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Upper Arlington 2021 School Board Election simulator
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| import random | |
| import secrets | |
| import time | |
| start_time = time.time() | |
| print ("Welcome to the November 2021 Upper Arlington School Board Election simulation!") | |
| print ("In Nov 2020, there were 24,622 ballots cast. 61.5% for Biden and 36.7% for Trump, and 1.8% for others. In other races, 49.1% voted for State Senator Kunze(R), and 50.9% voted for Rep. Stivers(R). In previous November elections, 23,309 ballots were cast in 2016, 15,526 in 2017, 21,043 in 2018 and 9,556 in 2019.") | |
| print ("Let's run a simulation of the upcoming school board election.") | |
| demPrefs = {'Liz': .02, 'Lou': .05, 'Nidhi':.98, 'Scott':.40, 'Carol':.70} | |
| indPrefs = {'Liz': .20, 'Lou': .45, 'Nidhi':.35, 'Scott':.70, 'Carol':.45} | |
| gopPrefs = {'Liz': .90, 'Lou': .98, 'Nidhi':.02, 'Scott':.20, 'Carol':.05} | |
| gopVoteShare = .39 | |
| indVoteShare = .15 | |
| demVoteShare = 1-(indVoteShare+gopVoteShare) | |
| print("The electorate will be composed of " + str(round(float(gopVoteShare*100))) + "% partisan Trump voters, " + str(round(float(indVoteShare*100))) + "% Biden/Stivers voters and " + str(round(float(demVoteShare*100)))+"% partisan Democrats.") | |
| print("A party line Democratic voter's choice probabilities:") | |
| for k, v in demPrefs.items(): | |
| print(k + " " + str(int(v*100))+ "%") | |
| print("A party line Trump voter's choice probabilities:") | |
| for k, v in gopPrefs.items(): | |
| print(k + " " + str(int(v*100))+ "%") | |
| print("A Biden/Stivers voter's choice probabilities:") | |
| for k, v in indPrefs.items(): | |
| print(k + " " + str(int(v*100))+ "%") | |
| # class Voter: | |
| # def __init__(self, profile): | |
| # self.profile = profile | |
| # print("A new " + profile + " voter has been created!") | |
| def vote(profile): | |
| if profile=='Dem': | |
| voterPref = demPrefs | |
| elif profile=='Ind': | |
| voterPref = indPrefs | |
| elif profile=='GOP': | |
| voterPref = gopPrefs | |
| else: | |
| print("ERROR!the vote function didn't work!!") | |
| ballotChoice = {'Liz': 0, 'Lou': 0, 'Nidhi':0, 'Scott':0, 'Carol':0} | |
| for i in range(5): | |
| for k, v in ballotChoice.items(): | |
| if random.SystemRandom().uniform(0,1) < voterPref.get(k): | |
| ballotChoice[k]+=1 | |
| prefSorted = sorted(ballotChoice.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True) | |
| # for k, v in prefSorted: | |
| # print (k + ' is receiving ' + str(v)) | |
| voteCastDict = dict(prefSorted[0:2]) | |
| voteCast = list(voteCastDict.keys()) | |
| return voteCast | |
| # Election return system | |
| electionReturns = {'Liz': 0, 'Lou': 0, 'Nidhi':0, 'Scott':0, 'Carol':0} | |
| def addReturns(ballot): | |
| for i in ballot: | |
| for k, v in electionReturns.items(): | |
| if k == i: | |
| electionReturns[k]+=1 | |
| # print (electionReturns) | |
| # Do the actual election | |
| def oneElection(): | |
| #totalVoters = random.randint(1300, 1500) # it doesn't need to be the full 19000 to 21000. | |
| totalVoters = 14500 | |
| gopVoters = random.SystemRandom().uniform(gopVoteShare-.01,gopVoteShare+.01) | |
| indVoters = random.SystemRandom().uniform(indVoteShare-.02,indVoteShare+.02) | |
| demVoters = 1 - (gopVoters+indVoters) | |
| print("Turnout is " + str(totalVoters) + " total voters") | |
| print(str(int(gopVoters*100)) + "% of voters are party line Trump voters") | |
| print(str(int(indVoters*100)) + "% of voters are Biden/Stivers voters") | |
| print(str(int(demVoters*100)) + "% of voters are party line Democratic voters") | |
| for i in range(int(totalVoters*float(gopVoters))): | |
| addReturns(vote('GOP')) | |
| # print (i) | |
| for i in range(int(totalVoters*float(indVoters))): | |
| addReturns(vote('Ind')) | |
| # print (i) | |
| for i in range(int(totalVoters*float(demVoters))): | |
| addReturns(vote('Dem')) | |
| # print (i) | |
| returnsSorted = sorted(electionReturns.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True) | |
| print ("Now let's print the final election returns!") | |
| for k, v in returnsSorted: | |
| print (k + ' - ' + str(v)) | |
| returnsDict = dict(returnsSorted[0:2]) | |
| winners = list(returnsDict.keys()) | |
| # print("The winners are "+ str(winners[0]) + " and " + str(winners[1])) | |
| return winners | |
| electionWins = {'Liz': 0, 'Lou': 0, 'Nidhi':0, 'Scott':0, 'Carol':0} | |
| def addWins(electionResults): | |
| for i in electionResults: | |
| # print (electionResults) | |
| for k, v in electionWins.items(): | |
| if k == i: | |
| electionWins[k]+=1 | |
| numOfSims = 1 | |
| print("Let's simulate " + str(numOfSims) + " elections and calculate each candidate's probability of winning.") | |
| # your code | |
| for i in range(numOfSims): | |
| # print (i) | |
| addWins(oneElection()) | |
| electionReturns = {'Liz': 0, 'Lou': 0, 'Nidhi':0, 'Scott':0, 'Carol':0} | |
| # Finally, let's count up the number of wins. | |
| winsSorted = sorted(electionWins.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True) | |
| for k, v in winsSorted: | |
| print (k + ' - ' + str(v) + " - " + str(round(float(v/numOfSims)*100, 1)) + "% chance of being elected.") | |
| e = time.time() - start_time | |
| print("%02d:%02d:%02d" % (e // 3600, (e % 3600 // 60), (e % 60 // 1))) | |
| # aDemocrat = Voter(self,"Dem") | |
| # aDemocrat.vote('Dem') | |
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