dmaynor · August 29, 2024 02:01
diff --git a/gistfile1.txt b/gistfile1.txt
 To extrapolate the potential progress in video game technology, particularly in relation to the capabilities of models that can run something like 20fps Doom on a single TPU today, we can consider a few key factors: hardware advancements, software optimizations, and the general trend in video game technology.

 ### 1-Year Projection:
 - **Hardware**: Incremental improvements in hardware, such as newer generations of TPUs or GPUs with better efficiency and processing power, might lead to roughly a 2x increase in performance.
 - **Software**: With ongoing software optimizations, models could be better at handling resource allocation, potentially achieving smoother gameplay and higher frame rates for more complex games, possibly reaching 40-50fps for similar complexity games.
 - **Games**: Models could start handling more advanced games from the mid-1990s, like *Quake* or *Duke Nukem 3D*, at reasonable frame rates, pushing towards early 3D gaming experiences.

 ### 2-Year Projection:
 - **Hardware**: With the introduction of more specialized processing units, the performance could increase by 3-4x.
 - **Software**: Continued software optimizations, including more efficient model architectures and better training algorithms, could push the boundaries even further, allowing real-time ray tracing on simplified scenes and higher fidelity simulations.
 - **Games**: Models could handle late-1990s games, such as *Half-Life* or *Unreal*, achieving real-time rendering of more complex environments and basic AI-driven interactions.

 ### 5-Year Projection:
 - **Hardware**: Significant advances, possibly through the introduction of quantum computing elements or massive parallel processing arrays, could lead to a 10-20x increase in performance.
 - **Software**: By this time, models might fully integrate multimodal processing (audio, visual, text) and support complex, real-time interactive environments with near-photorealistic rendering.
 - **Games**: Games from the early 2000s, such as *Halo* or *Grand Theft Auto III*, could be run in real-time with high fidelity, and we might see models generating entirely new gaming experiences, leveraging AI to create adaptive and procedurally generated content on the fly.

 ### 10-Year Projection:
 - **Hardware**: With exponential growth in hardware capabilities, perhaps through innovations like neuromorphic computing or advanced AI-driven hardware design, a 50-100x performance increase might be achievable.
 - **Software**: AI models could potentially optimize themselves, leading to massive reductions in resource requirements and increased capabilities. We might see fully immersive, AI-generated virtual worlds that are indistinguishable from reality, with dynamic content creation and seamless interaction.
 - **Games**: By this time, AI could be generating and running games that are far beyond anything conceivable today, with full simulations of virtual worlds, characters with human-like AI, and environments that evolve based on player interactions.

 ### General Trends:
 - **Real-Time Generation**: As we move forward, the capability for real-time generation of not just game graphics but entire game worlds, including logic and AI, will become increasingly feasible. This could fundamentally change how games are developed and experienced, moving from static content to dynamic, player-driven narratives.
 - **AI-Assisted Development**: Game developers might leverage AI not just for content generation but also for optimizing game engines, physics simulations, and even balancing game mechanics dynamically based on player feedback.
 - **Immersion and Interaction**: Enhanced immersion through VR/AR and AI-driven narratives will become a key focus. AI models will not only render scenes but will create rich, interactive experiences that respond fluidly to player actions.

 In summary, within 10 years, we could see AI models evolving from running basic games at modest frame rates to generating and managing entire, highly complex gaming ecosystems in real-time, fundamentally transforming the gaming industry.
	To extrapolate the potential progress in video game technology, particularly in relation to the capabilities of models that can run something like 20fps Doom on a single TPU today, we can consider a few key factors: hardware advancements, software optimizations, and the general trend in video game technology.

	### 1-Year Projection:
	- Hardware: Incremental improvements in hardware, such as newer generations of TPUs or GPUs with better efficiency and processing power, might lead to roughly a 2x increase in performance.
	- Software: With ongoing software optimizations, models could be better at handling resource allocation, potentially achieving smoother gameplay and higher frame rates for more complex games, possibly reaching 40-50fps for similar complexity games.
	- Games: Models could start handling more advanced games from the mid-1990s, like Quake or Duke Nukem 3D, at reasonable frame rates, pushing towards early 3D gaming experiences.

	### 2-Year Projection:
	- Hardware: With the introduction of more specialized processing units, the performance could increase by 3-4x.
	- Software: Continued software optimizations, including more efficient model architectures and better training algorithms, could push the boundaries even further, allowing real-time ray tracing on simplified scenes and higher fidelity simulations.
	- Games: Models could handle late-1990s games, such as Half-Life or Unreal, achieving real-time rendering of more complex environments and basic AI-driven interactions.

	### 5-Year Projection:
	- Hardware: Significant advances, possibly through the introduction of quantum computing elements or massive parallel processing arrays, could lead to a 10-20x increase in performance.
	- Software: By this time, models might fully integrate multimodal processing (audio, visual, text) and support complex, real-time interactive environments with near-photorealistic rendering.
	- Games: Games from the early 2000s, such as Halo or Grand Theft Auto III, could be run in real-time with high fidelity, and we might see models generating entirely new gaming experiences, leveraging AI to create adaptive and procedurally generated content on the fly.

	### 10-Year Projection:
	- Hardware: With exponential growth in hardware capabilities, perhaps through innovations like neuromorphic computing or advanced AI-driven hardware design, a 50-100x performance increase might be achievable.
	- Software: AI models could potentially optimize themselves, leading to massive reductions in resource requirements and increased capabilities. We might see fully immersive, AI-generated virtual worlds that are indistinguishable from reality, with dynamic content creation and seamless interaction.
	- Games: By this time, AI could be generating and running games that are far beyond anything conceivable today, with full simulations of virtual worlds, characters with human-like AI, and environments that evolve based on player interactions.

	### General Trends:
	- Real-Time Generation: As we move forward, the capability for real-time generation of not just game graphics but entire game worlds, including logic and AI, will become increasingly feasible. This could fundamentally change how games are developed and experienced, moving from static content to dynamic, player-driven narratives.
	- AI-Assisted Development: Game developers might leverage AI not just for content generation but also for optimizing game engines, physics simulations, and even balancing game mechanics dynamically based on player feedback.
	- Immersion and Interaction: Enhanced immersion through VR/AR and AI-driven narratives will become a key focus. AI models will not only render scenes but will create rich, interactive experiences that respond fluidly to player actions.

	In summary, within 10 years, we could see AI models evolving from running basic games at modest frame rates to generating and managing entire, highly complex gaming ecosystems in real-time, fundamentally transforming the gaming industry.