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Umfragen & Wahlergebnisse [Deutschland]
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| library(rvest) | |
| library(dplyr) | |
| library(ggplot2) | |
| library(tidyr) | |
| library(scales) | |
| library(purrr) | |
| library(readr) | |
| library(dplyr) | |
| sf <- 2 | |
| options(vsc.dev.args = list(width = 600 * sf, height = 335 * sf, res = 72 * sf)) | |
| party_colors <- c( | |
| "CDU/CSU" = "#000000", | |
| "SPD" = "#E3000F", | |
| "GRÜNE" = "#64BC5C", | |
| "FDP" = "#FFCC00", | |
| "DIE LINKE" = "#BE3075", | |
| "AfD" = "#0C1C8C", | |
| "FW" = "#f49800", | |
| "BSW" = "#792350" | |
| ) | |
| # Get historical data | |
| ts1 <- read_csv("https://gist.githubusercontent.com/USMortality/a92fe8baacae09b8df03dd33aeea7d67/raw/data.csv") | |
| # Get latet data | |
| dates <- seq.Date(from = as.Date("2024-09-15"), to = Sys.Date(), by = "month") | |
| process_table <- function(tbl) { | |
| names(tbl) <- ifelse(names(tbl) == "", paste0("Unnamed", seq_along(tbl)), names(tbl)) | |
| tbl |> | |
| select(1:(ncol(tbl))) |> | |
| mutate( | |
| across( | |
| -1, | |
| ~ as.numeric(gsub(",", ".", gsub(" %", "", .))) / 100 | |
| ) | |
| ) | |
| } | |
| result <- vector("list", length(dates)) | |
| for (i in seq_along(dates)) { | |
| date <- dates[i] | |
| print(date) | |
| url <- paste0( | |
| "https://web.archive.org/web/", | |
| format(date, "%Y%m%d"), | |
| "/https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/" | |
| ) | |
| # Attempt to read the webpage; if an error occurs, skip to the next iteration | |
| tryCatch( | |
| { | |
| webpage <- read_html(url) | |
| tables <- html_table(webpage, fill = TRUE) | |
| df <- tables[[2]] %>% | |
| process_table() %>% | |
| pivot_longer(cols = 2:(last_col() - 1), names_to = "Variable", values_to = "Value") %>% | |
| select(1, 3, 4) %>% | |
| setNames(c("party", "institute", "value")) %>% | |
| filter(!is.na(value)) | |
| df$date <- as.Date(dates[i]) | |
| result[[i]] <- df | |
| }, | |
| error = function(e) { | |
| message(sprintf("Error processing URL for date %s: %s", format(dates[i], "%Y-%m-%d"), e$message)) | |
| } | |
| ) | |
| Sys.sleep(3) | |
| } | |
| # write.csv(ts, "~/Downloads/out.csv", row.names = FALSE) | |
| ts <- bind_rows(ts1, compact(result)) |> | |
| arrange(date, party) |> | |
| unique() | |
| # 12m span for LOESS | |
| first_date <- min(ts$date) | |
| last_date <- max(ts$date) | |
| span <- min(365 / as.numeric(difftime(last_date, first_date, units = "days")), 1) | |
| # Create the plot | |
| ggplot( | |
| ts |> filter( | |
| party %in% names(party_colors), | |
| # date >= as.Date("2017-09-24") - 30 | |
| ), | |
| aes(x = date, y = value, color = party, fill = party) | |
| ) + | |
| geom_smooth( | |
| method = "loess", | |
| span = span, | |
| # span = span * 3, | |
| alpha = 0.2 | |
| ) + | |
| geom_point(size = 0.1) + | |
| scale_y_continuous(labels = percent_format(scale = 100)) + | |
| scale_color_manual(values = party_colors) + | |
| scale_fill_manual(values = party_colors) + | |
| geom_vline( | |
| xintercept = as.Date(c("2013-09-22", "2017-09-24", "2021-09-26", "2025-09-28")), | |
| linetype = "dashed", color = "black" | |
| ) + | |
| labs( | |
| x = "Datum", | |
| y = "Stimmenanteil", | |
| title = "Umfrageergebnisse [Deutschland]", | |
| subtitle = "Gestrichelte Linien: Bundestagswahl · Quelle: wahlrecht.de · @USMortality", | |
| color = "Partei", | |
| fill = "Partei" | |
| ) + | |
| theme_minimal() + | |
| theme( | |
| axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1), | |
| legend.position = "right" | |
| ) |
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