Created
November 13, 2021 16:34
-
-
Save MarcvdSluys/17bee3944e5a7793c9ce6c79546ec677 to your computer and use it in GitHub Desktop.
This file contains bidirectional Unicode text that may be interpreted or compiled differently than what appears below. To review, open the file in an editor that reveals hidden Unicode characters.
Learn more about bidirectional Unicode characters
Reconstruction of model of infections at a large event in the Netherlands, quoted in the Volkskrant on Fri 2021-11-12. | |
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/waarom-de-coronapas-geen-redding-bracht-en-of-2g-wel-gaat-werken~bb63b508/ | |
Point of interest: the VK seems to implicitly assume that vaccinated people get infected 75% less often than | |
non-vaccinated people at the event, but not outside. See what happens when using 25% for both (assumption 2). | |
Assumptions: | |
- number of people at the event: 300000.0 | |
- if vaccinated, relative probability of infection at contact (NL): [1. 0.25] | |
- if vaccinated, relative probability of infection at contact (event): 0.25 | |
- if not vaccinated, relative probability of infection at contact: 1.0 | |
- if vaccinated and carrying virus, probability to transmit it: 0.4 | |
- if not vaccinated, quick test false negatives: 0.2 | |
- fraction of vaccinated people: 0.75 | |
- (mean) fraction of people that is carrier of the virus: 0.01 | |
- if not vaccinated and infected, probability to be hospitalised: 0.0184 | |
- if vaccinated, relative probability to be hospitalised: 0.05 | |
- scale factor to get absolute numbers VK (=e): 2.718281828459045 | |
Carriers per category: | |
- fraction of vaccinated people that is carrier of the virus: [0.01 0.00571] | |
- fraction of non-vaccinated people that is carrier of the virus: [0.01 0.02286] | |
At the gate: | |
- total number of visitors: 300000.0 | |
- number of vaccinated visitors: 225000.0 | |
- number of non-vaccinated visitors: 75000.0 | |
- number of carriers: 3000.0 | |
- number of vaccinated carriers: [2250. 1286.] | |
- number of vaccinated transmitters: [900. 514.] | |
- number of non-vaccinated carriers: [ 750. 1714.] | |
- number of non-vaccinated visitors rejected: [ 600. 1371.] | |
- number of non-vaccinated transmitters admitted: [150. 343.] | |
- fraction of vaccinated transmitters: [54.5 23.1] % | |
- fraction of non-vaccinated transmitters: [45.5 76.9] % | |
Admitted: | |
- total number of visitors: [299400. 298629.] | |
- number of vaccinated visitors: 225000.0 | |
- number of non-vaccinated visitors: [74400. 73629.] | |
- fraction of vaccinated people: [75.2 75.3] % | |
- total number of carriers: [2400. 1629.] | |
- number of vaccinated carriers: [2250. 1286.] | |
- number of vaccinated transmitters: [900. 514.] | |
- number of non-vaccinated carriers: [150. 343.] | |
- fraction of people that is carrier of the virus: [0.802 0.545] % | |
- fraction of vaccinated transmitters: [85.7 60. ] % | |
- fraction of non-vaccinated transmitters: [14.3 40. ] % | |
- total number of healthy visitors: [297000. 297000.] | |
- number of vaccinated healthy visitors: [222750. 223714.] | |
- number of non-vaccinated healthy visitors: [74250. 73286.] | |
- fraction of healthy visitors: [99.2 99.5] % | |
Infections: | |
- number of infections from vaccinated to vaccinated: [455. 262.] | |
- number of infections from non-vaccinated to vaccinated: [ 76. 175.] | |
- number of infections from vaccinated to non-vaccinated: [607. 343.] | |
- number of infections from non-vaccinated to non-vaccinated: [101. 229.] | |
- number of infections from vaccinated: [1062. 605.] | |
- number of infections from non-vaccinated: [177. 403.] | |
- fraction of infections from vaccinated: [85.7 60. ] % | |
- fraction of infections from non-vaccinated: [14.3 40. ] % | |
- number of infections to vaccinated: [531. 436.] | |
- number of infections to non-vaccinated: [708. 572.] | |
- fraction of infections to vaccinated: [42.9 43.3] % | |
- fraction of infections to non-vaccinated: [57.1 56.7] % | |
- total number of infections: [1239. 1008.] | |
Hospitalisations: | |
- number of vaccinated visitors hospitalised: [0. 0.] | |
- number of non-vaccinated visitors hospitalised: [13. 11.] | |
- total number of visitors hospitalised: [14. 11.] | |
- fraction of hospitalised visitors that is vaccinated: [3.6 3.7] % | |
- fraction of hospitalised visitors that is not vaccinated: [96.4 96.3] % | |
Sign up for free
to join this conversation on GitHub.
Already have an account?
Sign in to comment