Created
November 14, 2021 11:44
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Reconstruction of model of infections at a large event in the Netherlands, quoted in the Volkskrant on Fri 2021-11-12.
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* Results | |
+ Original: VK assumption that vaccinated carry the virus as often as non-vaccinated outside the event. | |
+ Updated: vaccinated carry the virus 25% as often as non-vaccinated outside the event (like inside). | |
|----------+------------+--------------------+------------------+-------------------------| | |
| Model | Var. | Infections | Hospitalisations | Comments | | |
|----------+------------+--------------------+------------------+-------------------------| | |
| Original | No testing | 833 + 1110 = 1943 | 1 + 20 = 21 | Mine, no VK equivalent | | |
| Original | 3G | 531 + 708 = 1239 | 0 + 13 = 14 | Perfect match | | |
| Original | 2G | 807 + 0 = 807 | 1 + 0 = 1 | ~ match ('800') | | |
| Original | Asian VK | 175 + 155 = 330 | 0 + 4 = 4 | Numbers (~) from VK | | |
| Original | Asian mine | 168 + 224 = 392 | 0 + 4 = 4 | Significant difference! | | |
| Original | 2G + test | 163 + 0 = 163 | 0 + 0 = 0 | Mine, no VK equivalent | | |
|----------+------------+--------------------+------------------+-------------------------| | |
| Updated | No testing | 1129 + 1480 = 2609 | 1 + 27 = 28 | | | |
| Updated | 3G | 436 + 572 = 1008 | 0 + 11 = 11 | | | |
| Updated | 2G | 463 + 0 = 463 | 0 + 0 = 0 | | | |
| Updated | Asian | 228 + 298 = 526 | 0 + 5 = 6 | | | |
| Updated | 2G + test | 93 + 0 = 93 | 0 + 0 = 0 | | | |
|----------+------------+--------------------+------------------+-------------------------| | |
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